Hidden Assumptions, Diverging Definitions of Value
Why AI Can Make the Problem Worse (06/26)
Diverging Definitions of Value in Projects
Project discussions where nobody challenges the case—and nobody endorses the project—are surprisingly common.
The market assumptions have been reviewed. The technical concept is sound and has been thoroughly vetted. The economics have been stress-tested repeatedly. Sensitivity analyses have been prepared for the relevant risks.
By most standards, it is a well-prepared investment case.
The project is rejected.
What appears surprising is often almost inevitable.
The problem is frequently not in the numbers. The problem is that the people around the table are applying different worldviews and different definitions of value.
Some view the project primarily through the lens of financial return. Others focus on strategic positioning. Some worry about secondary effects on portfolio or reputation. Others see an opportunity to build capabilities that may become valuable years later. All of them carry different expectations within the given uncertainty.
The discussion appears to be about assumptions, forecasts, and probabilities.
In reality, it is often a negotiation about value.
Nobody challenges the case directly. Instead, stakeholders request additional analyses, alternative scenarios, and further validation. The discussion remains analytical while the disagreement itself does not.
The question is not whether the analysis is correct. The question is what the analysis needs to prove.
Until that is understood, even the best analysis often generates heat rather than alignment.
What is often overlooked is that disagreements about value rarely emerge on their own. They are usually rooted in different assumptions about reality.
People disagree about what is attractive, risky, urgent, strategic, or worth pursuing because they are operating from different interpretations of the situation. They expect different market developments. They assess competitors differently. They assign different probabilities to technological, commercial, or regulatory outcomes.
The disagreement about value is therefore often downstream of a disagreement about assumptions.
And that disagreement is frequently hidden.
The Expensive Word: “Obvious”
One of the most expensive words in projects and negotiations is “obvious.”
Teams routinely describe market opportunities, customer needs, strategic rationales, and risks as obvious. Yet what is often presented as a fact is actually an assumption that has become accepted.
In preparing complex negotiations and strategic decisions, hard facts are often limited. Much of the discussion is built on interpretations, projections, judgments, and expectations about the future. The market may develop in a certain direction. A competitor may react in a certain way. A technology may mature. A regulator may intervene. A customer may value a particular feature.
None of these statements are facts.
They are assumptions.
Yet teams can spend weeks debating recommendations while never examining the assumptions that produced them.
The disagreement sits further upstream.
People are working from different mental models of the situation. Once that happens, they also begin to define value differently. What looks attractive, risky, urgent, strategic, or worth pursuing depends largely on the assumptions underneath.
The objective is not to achieve consensus on reality. Nor is it to turn every assumption into a hard fact. That is neither realistic nor necessary. Assumptions are practical approximations of reality.
What matters is achieving sufficient alignment on which parts of reality matter in a given context and what people are assuming about them. The point is not to eliminate uncertainty. The point is to make implicit assumptions explicit and part of the shared context.
Only then does it make sense to debate value, compare alternatives, or agree on the standards by which competing options should be judged.
There is a second reason assumptions matter.
So far, this is primarily an internal alignment problem. In negotiations, however, facts and assumptions should not be treated the same way. The distinction influences risk allocation, objective criteria, mechanisms for managing competing interests, and ultimately what parties are willing to agree to.
A party may accept a contractual commitment based on a verified fact while demanding safeguards, contingencies, or risk-sharing mechanisms when the same issue is based on an assumption. The distinction shapes both the substance of the agreement and the willingness to make it.
Why AI Amplifies the Problem
The challenge becomes even more relevant when AI enters the process.
One of the most dangerous AI outputs is not a hallucination.
It is a well-reasoned answer built on an incomplete picture.
When humans argue in a project or negotiation, uncertainty often becomes visible. People hesitate. Contradictions emerge. Questions get asked. They recognize that something important may be missing. We have also learned that inconsistency and incompleteness are often symptoms of incorrectness.
Large language models behave differently.
They generate the statistically most plausible continuation of the context they are given. Gaps are filled by inference. For a language model, careful inference and aggressive extrapolation are fundamentally the same operation.
Give an LLM an incomplete description of a negotiation, investment case, project, or strategic decision and it will still produce a coherent answer. The result will be logically structured, persuasive, and internally consistent because generating coherent language is precisely what the system is designed to do.
The problem is that humans instinctively associate coherence with correctness and understanding of context.
With LLMs, that inference is far less reliable.
LLMs answer your question, not your problem.
Humans and organizations operate with countless implicit assumptions, priorities, and value judgments. We often struggle to make them explicit, even to ourselves. As a result, important parts of the context frequently remain unstated.
LLMs have no reliable way of distinguishing between information that is missing because it is irrelevant and information that is missing because nobody thought to mention it.
In many cases, the risk is not faulty reasoning.
The risk is flawless reasoning applied to an incomplete representation of reality.
This is why effective AI use is often less about generating answers and more about exposing assumptions, identifying context gaps, and revealing what may be missing from the picture.
Some of the most valuable AI outputs are therefore not answers.
They are questions.
Context Precedes Clarity
Strategic decisions, negotiations, investment cases, and AI-supported analyses are often treated as separate disciplines. In practice, they frequently fail for the same reason.
The underlying assumptions remain hidden.
People debate conclusions while operating from different definitions of value. Analytical work becomes disconnected from the standards by which success is judged. AI then produces increasingly persuasive answers within the boundaries of an incomplete picture.
The result is not necessarily bad reasoning.
It is reasoning disconnected from the reality that ultimately determines success.
Before debating recommendations, organizations need sufficient alignment on the context in which those recommendations will be evaluated.
Because context precedes clarity.
And clarity precedes good decisions.
This article was originally published on LinkedIn . Slightly modified from the original version to fit the format.